November 2nd election predictions.

The California general election takes place today, and it’s been quite an ordeal getting here.  We have made it through another season of political canvassing, gubernatorial mudslinging, televised campaign ads and various other forms of misinformation to finally arrive at the home stretch.  Very shortly, we will receive news of the victories and defeats, the celebrations and the disappointment, and whether or not we can smoke pot, postpone environmental cleanup, or pass the state budget with a simple majority.

Prop 19 concerns legalizing marijuana for recreational use to be regulated, taxed, and controlled by local government.  It seems like a good place to start since it makes for a light introduction and you probably won’t read all the way through redrawing congressional districts.  I think Prop 19 will fail because even within the current marijuana industry there are large parties disagreeing with it.  Too many people see it as a scam, or a grab by large scale medical growers to secure the market for themselves and eventually lock on to the lions share of production and sales.

Prop 20 transfers the authority to draw congressional districts from elected representatives to a 14 person redistricting committee.  I think it will pass because it appears to have little financial impact on voters while at the same time offering them a chance to take a sinister sounding power away from those who appear to misuse it.  People don’t trust politicians, and even though this doesn’t really take them out of the picture, voters will probably see this as an upgrade.

Prop 21 would impose an additional $18 fee when you license a vehicle, and put that money towards the state parks.  All charged vehicles also get free admission to all state parks.   I don’t think this will pass because nobody goes to state parks anymore, and most people already hate giving the DMV money. 

Prop 22 would prohibit the state from borrowing from, taking money from, or delaying the distribution of tax revenues to funds for transportation, redevelopment or local government.  I think this will pass because people are frustrated and confused by government spending.  This seems like it will keep money where it is intended to go, and whether that’s true or not people will probably like it because transportation, redevelopment, and local government spending sound like important things that will probably affect me personally.  People want to feel like they’re making a change for the better, and this sounds good, so I think it has a good chance.

Prop 23 would suspend the implementation of a previous air pollution control law, AB 32, until unemployment drops to 5.5 percent for a full year.  I don’t think this will pass because most Californians are pretty environmentally conscious and don’t want the evil polluters to continue pouring emissions into the environment unchecked. Furthermore, the anti 23 campaign has made themselves known across the state through voter outreach, and an unemployment level of 5.5 percent seems awfully optimistic for a prerequisite goal.

Prop 25 changes the legislative vote requirement to pass a state budget and other budget related legislation from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority.  I don’t know about this one because on one side there is a lot of frustration over this years ridiculously late budget, but on the other hand, many people realize that whatever party is the majority could misuse it.  If I had to pick a side, I would say that it will pass, simply because it sounds more streamlined.

Prop 27 is the opposite of Prop 20.  27 would eliminate the 14 person redistricting committee, and concentrate redistricting power with elected officials.  I don’t think this stands a snowballs chance in hell.  Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.